Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

Review Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction 

by PHILIPP E. TETLOCK and DAN GARDNER

Description

Taken from experts of various fields, the book, “Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction,” was written with one thing in mind: how one can cultivate foresight to his or her personal and financial development.

The book’s contents have been taken from years of research and the government’s efforts to conduct forecasting tests that would render results that benefit individuals wanting to make their lives better. The pool of samples has been taken from various industries such as the entertainment industry, service, technical, and the like. The individuals were subjected to questions pertaining to events that would have them exercising their capabilities in predicting outcomes. What the data had sufficed is that these individuals have exceeded the expectations, besting actual experts and intelligence analysts privy to classified information. The study had since proved that forecasting is not necessarily reliant on industry or talent—what is needed simply is an efficient gathering of pieces of evidence, a good sense of probability, teamwork, and the willingness to admit to mistakes.

The book promises to train its readers on how to improve their ability to predict the future, may it be in the financial field, politics, foreign affairs, or even in daily life.

Readers agree that “Superforecasting” has the makings of a modern classic. The insights included in the material are not just helpful but grounded. It had cleared up certain misconceptions, registering that forecasting is not merely guesswork, but a disciplined science. It lets the numbers speak rather than relying on gut and intuition.

About the Authors

Philip E. Tetlock is a Professor at the University of Pennsylvania. He also has appointments at Wharton School of Business in the departments of Psychology and Political Science. Along with his wife, Barbara Wellers, Tetlock leads the multi-year forecasting study called the Good Judgment Project.

Dan Gardner is the author of the books, “Risk: The Science and Politics of Fear” and “Future Babble: Why Pundits Are Hedgehogs and Foxes Know Best.” He is also a notable journalist.

Table of Contents

  1. An Optimistic Skeptic
  2. Illusions of Knowledge
  3. Keeping Score
  4. Superforecasters
  5. Supersmart?
  6. Superquants?
  7. Supernewsjunkies?
  8. Perpetual Beta
  9. Superteams
  10. The Leader’s Dilemma
  11. Are They Really So Super?
  12. What’s Next?

Epilogue

An Invitation

Appendix: Ten Commandments for Aspiring Superforecasters

Acknowledgments

Notes

Index